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Home two-wheeler quantity to shrink one to 4 % YoY this fiscal, says ICRA

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Home two-wheeler (2W) quantity is anticipated to shrink by 1-4 per cent year-on-year this fiscal, impacted by relentless enhance in 2W costs in addition to report excessive petrol value, amongst others, credit score scores company has stated. Additional, ICRA stated that the lacklustre festive season efficiency additionally highlights the continued wariness among the many low-income inhabitants concerning big-ticket purchases.

ICRA Scores expects home two-wheeler volumes to contract by 1-4 per cent YoY in FY2022, following a weak festive season efficiency for the trade.

Additionally, the gross sales of 8.05 million two-wheelers within the home market in April-October interval of FY2022 are flattish on a YoY foundation regardless of a severely contracted base, it said.

The relentless enhance in 2W costs through the 12 months and record-high petrol charges have saved shoppers away from dealerships, based on the credit score scores company.

Moreover, the financiers have remained cautious, after witnessing a rise in delinquency ranges.

Whereas the demand for premium two-wheelers, which comprise round 15 per cent of the general home volumes, has fared comparatively higher, the OEMs have confronted provide constraints attributable to semi-conductor chip shortages, ICRA stated, including, total, given the present stock at dealerships post-festive season (40-45 days), a excessive development in wholesale dispatches within the remaining a part of the fiscal is unlikely.

“The entry-segment (75-110cc), which dominates two-wheeler gross sales in India, has remained subdued this 12 months, reflecting intensive (and prolonged) influence of the second wave of the pandemic. The lacklustre festive season efficiency additionally highlighted continued wariness among the many low-income inhabitants concerning big-ticket purchases,” stated Rohan Kanwar Gupta, Vice President and Sector Head for Company Scores at ICRA.

Revenue uncertainties, attributable to job losses, wage cuts or restricted increments, whereas going through Covid-related medical bills (precise or anticipated) and skyrocketing value of two-wheeler possession, have led to buy deferrals this festive season, he stated.

“Given the muted gross sales, the stock at dealerships can be comparatively excessive, which might imply solely a marginal, if any, traction in wholesale volumes in remaining FY2022,” added Gupta.

In line with ICRA, the agricultural offtake has lagged city, probably attributable to moderated agri-sentiments attributable to uneven monsoons and delayed harvesting throughout areas.

Within the city markets, the delay in reopening of faculties and schools, weak earnings sentiments attributable to job losses or wage cuts (within the aftermath of the pandemic) and prolonged work-from-home insurance policies by corporates, have impacted gross sales, it added.

Noting that whereas the current lower in petrol costs, the upcoming marriage ceremony season (sometimes lends itself to extend in two-wheeler buy in rural markets) and opening up of labour-intensive industries like journey, tourism, and hospitality are beneficial for demand restoration within the forthcoming months, the scores company stated {that a} significant development is more likely to be seen solely within the subsequent fiscal.

“On the monetary entrance, given the excessive working leverage of the trade, subdued demand and elevated raw-material prices are anticipated to maintain the working margins constrained for the 2W OEMs within the present fiscal. Nonetheless, these will probably be supported by value escalations and price rationalisation initiatives,” stated Gupta.

The credit score profile of two-wheeler OEMs would proceed to stay wholesome, supported by sturdy steadiness sheets with excessive web value, restricted debt and sizeable money and liquid investments, as per ICRA.

Whereas the capex can be greater than the FY2021 ranges, main growth plans are anticipated to be deferred until a significant demand restoration, Gupta stated.

“The OEMs will proceed to spend money on new product growth, new applied sciences (together with electrical automobiles) and community growth in each the home and the abroad markets,” he added.

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